Will Delta derail the economy?
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macroeconomics

Aug 12

Will Delta derail the economy?

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The August 2021 edition of Numera Analytics' Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation and exchange rates.
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Nov 03

Global Forces – The Missing Piece to the Inflation Puzzle

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Claims that US inflation no longer responds to cyclical unemployment are misguided. New research by Numera Analytics shows job market gains have so far been offset by weak global conditions, an increasingly important driver of consumer prices in advanced economies. As global headwinds dissipate, rising import prices and strong aggregate demand will drive up headline inflation. In our view, the current debate is much too focused on simple correlations between inflation and the unemployment rate. A weaker correlation has led many observers…
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Oct 18

Is Global Inflation Finally Awakening?

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October Reports Uncover Rising Inflationary Pressures With the International Monetary Fund bumping up its forecast for global economic growth and the markets continuing to experience a ‘Goldilocks’ rally - synchronized expansion with limited inflation - global conditions call for cautious optimism. But what do the fundamentals for global production and manufacturing tell us about future price developments? Our Industrial Production report, which is the timeliest release for global production figures, supports the positive notions. Global industrial production grew 3.6% year-on-year in August in…
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Sep 21

Strong demand lifts producer prices after two months of weaker growth; inflationary pressures building

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Global manufacturing production rose 4.0% year-on-year in July, the strongest increase since April 2014. Although most of the gain was explained by stronger productive capacity (potential output was up 3.0%), cyclical factors were also at play. The output gap, a measure of market tightness in the manufacturing sector, hit a 28-month high in July. Strong demand conditions fuelled an uptick in producer price inflation, which had eased in May and June as a result of weak commodity prices.  
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Sep 18

Global industrial production up 3.6% in July, supported by strong factor output; production up 3.2% after 7M

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World industrial activity continues to trend upwards, growing 3.6% year-over-year in July. Industrial production is up 3.2% after seven months, well above the 1.6% rate of growth recorded in 2016. Underlying the improvement in industrial production is stronger demand for manufactured goods, which is also contributing to higher merchandise trade flows. World manufacturing production was up 3.5% through July, with sturdy rates of growth recorded in most large economies. Perhaps the one major exception is the United States, where the…
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