Third wave will not derail recovery

July 13, 2021 | Articles

The July 2021 edition of Numera Analytics’ Global Macro Perspectives report features in-depth commentary of the key macro themes shaping the global economic outlook, as well as our latest country and regional views on growth, inflation, and exchange rates. 

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Will the tech rally persist?

July 7, 2021 | Articles

The June 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor discusses US consumption prospects, exploring the likelihood of a normalization in expenditure patterns. We then evaluate the implications of potential budget shifts for sector rotation, focusing on the relative performance of tech stocks.

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Hedging inflation risk

June 3, 2021 | Articles

The May 2021 edition of Numera’s US Macro Monitor explores the factors behind high US inflation, and discusses various strategies to minimize inflationary risk. While an inflationary spiral remains unlikely, we expect higher trend inflation than in the past 5Y, weakening the relative appeal of 60/40 portfolios.

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The reflation trade is back on for 2021

December 17, 2020 | Articles

In the December 2020 edition of Numera’s Global Macro Monitor, we discuss our views about the global economy in 2021, and its implications for investment strategy. As the world transitions towards a ‘reflationary’ regime, we suggest overweighting hard assets and resource-rich equity markets. Read More

World retail sales up 4.7% y-o-y in July, exceeding their equilibrium rate; global inflation picking up

September 29, 2017 | Articles

Real retail sales grew 4.7% year-over-year in July worldwide, maintaining the strong momentum of recent months. Retail volumes exceeded equilibrium consumption (the level of spending consistent with stable inflation) by about 0.5%, continuing to exert upward pressure on consumer prices. As expected, global inflation accelerated in July (+3.4% annualized), and in most major economies is now approaching long-term inflation expectations.