Numera Analytics is proud to be a Silver Sponsor of the “Investing in Cellulose 2025” Conference, set for November 10, 2025, at the Waldorf Hilton Hotel, Aldwych, London. Our experts Joaquin Kritz Lara and Emanuele Bona will share key insights on the Global Economic Outlook and Tariffs, and the Latest Developments in the Paper Pulp Industry. Save 10% on your registration with the promo code: NUMERA10 Register here.
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Navigating Out of The Trough: Charting Different Courses for Recovery Global chlor-alkali and vinyls markets have been stuck in a demand driven trough since 2023. Depressed trough operating rates and compressed margins have led some to suggest that rationalization in high-cost regions is the answer for a quicker recovery. Exacerbating the challenge is new capacity, justified during the peak margin period following the pandemic, coming online. As central banks begin easing interest rates and inflation retreats, construction activity is showing…
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Numera's Chief Strategist Joaquin Kritz Lara sits down with Chris Cook to analyze the economic impact of the US presidential election. We warn that markets may not be properly pricing inflation risks, given the proposed policy decisions of Harris or Trump, which are significant. In our recent US Strategist report we measure the impact of their respective policy mix on inflation, and what it means for the Fed easing cycle. The result is not what we expected.
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As is usually the case during a ‘late cycle’, markets have become highly sensitive to US economic data releases. A weak jobs report in early August temporarily shook investor confidence by reigniting recession worries. Yet signs of resilient spending and Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole helped tone down concerns of an imminent slowdown, again fueling risky assets. As the Fed starts its easing cycle, should investors continue favoring riskier assets, or are markets underestimating risks to the economy? Join…
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The European corrugated box market experienced a tentative recovery in H2 2023, rising from the recent lows of H2 2022. What are the prospects for continued growth in what remains a challenging economic environment and how will containerboard exports fare in a context of excess capacity? Join Tomas Marinozzi, Economist, Guadalupe Carracedo, Market Analyst, and Paul Leclair, Vice-President at Numera Analytics as they discuss these questions in our online briefing. As always, they will provide Numera’s outlook for the European…
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North American corrugated box shipments have finally turned a corner, following last year’s inventory-driven correction. How much of a rebound in box demand can we expect in 2024 and what are the projections for key end-use segments? In addition, we will discuss our outlook for the US economy, shifting household consumption patterns, the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and how different sectors of manufacturing will fare in 2024.
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Equity markets roared back to life in 2023, benefiting from low financial stress, a weaker USD, and bullish investor sentiment in response to both AI and ‘soft landing’ optimism. History shows that a late cycle environment is flush with volatility. Knowing this, we seek to answer a very important question: How should investors position their portfolios to maximize risk-adjusted returns in 2024? Join us for an online briefing on January 31st at 11AM EST, where our Managing Director and Chief…
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Our Industrial sector diffusion index has been flashing major decoupling with the broad economy for some time now. Although, the most likely outcome for the US is still positive growth, risks have markedly increased over the last quarter. Recession risk has jumped 24 points to 42% for 2020, the highest level since 2008. Join Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera Analytics’ Head of Macro Research, on Wednesday, October 9th at 11:00 am EDT, as he discusses how macro risks influence asset returns,…
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Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing corrugated packaging markets, with a focus on North America and Europe. Numera's David Vallières along with VRP's Chip Dillon and Bloomberg's Joshua Zaret will discuss the supply/demand and pricing outlook in North America, new/projected capacity additions, secular demand sources, as well as China’s wastepaper import restrictions and what they mean for US containerboard producers. To participate in this…
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Neglecting the assessment of risk by solely offering point forecasts is leaving you vulnerable to unforeseen surprises or worse, to extreme events like what transpired in 2008. Join Numera's Head of Macro Research & Senior Economist, Joaquín Kritz Lara and Chris Cook, Vice President of Global Macro Solutions for a live webinar covering key issues shaping the global investment outlook in 2019.
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