Contrary to popular belief, changes in oil supply are of secondary importance in explaining recent oil price developments. In this study, Numera explores how the decline has mainly been the result of unanticipated shifts in market sentiment.
The recent strong performance of the European corrugated market can be attributed, to a large extent, to the unanticipated sharp drop in oil prices. This is the key finding of a recent econometric analysis by Numera Analytics. Moreover, the research indicates any quick rebound in oil prices could reverse these gains, unless the price increase is mainly driven by stronger global macroeconomic conditions.