Embracing
Uncertainty
Macroeconomic analysis is imperfect. Even with well specified models, future shocks will necessarily cause projections to deviate from their outcome. Failure to account for different sources of uncertainty – and their pattern of transmission – can result in poor decision making.
At Numera Analytics, our goal is to help client understand sources of growth, quantify downside risks, and anticipate shifts in the global economy. Our approach is to assess the full range of potential outcomes rather than focus on central scenarios. In so doing, we overcome serious caveats in conventional economic analysis.
Our cutting-edge probability forecast models allow our corporate clients to monitor and quantify risks to the economy and key end-use markets, identify growth opportunities, and fine-tune assumptions behind their demand, price and cost projections. Our continuous focus on risk monitoring also helps clients to improve their hedging and commodity buying strategies, and effectively stress test their balance sheets.
Request TrialWhat makes us different?
By subscribing to Numera Macro, you will gain access to the most rigorous macro research in the industry.
• Testable: Our views are rooted in a probabilistic assessment of the future. We continuously test qualitative signals and macro theory to limit errors in prediction.
• Insightful: Our offering is heavily theme-based, distilling relevant macro topics to best serve your operations. By assessing macro themes through a probabilistic lens, we will continuously challenge your own convictions, and help you better position yourself against the market.
• Consistent: All of our predictions rely on a common set of back-tested macro dynamics, from oil prices to Fed policy. By guaranteeing consistency, our clients can directly compare results across all of our publications, regardless of the concept or region under consideration.
• Transparent: Our team goes to great lengths to ensure that our models and proprietary indicators are effective at predicting macro trends and turning points. As a result, we are happy to share with clients the various inputs and structure that underlie our economic predictions.
Research Offering
- Global Macro Perspectives: Our monthly global economic outlook, featuring our updated probability forecasts and analysis for DM and EM growth, inflation and exchange rates. All models are extensively back-tested to minimize errors in prediction, and monitor downside risks to the world economy.
- Commodity Outlook: A slide deck featuring our latest analysis, forecasts and proposed trades for crude oil, copper, iron ore and gold. Every month we offer a ‘deep dive’ on crude oil, the most actively traded commodity and with the greatest implications for the global economic outlook.
- Data trackers: A set of three high frequency reports, offering a timely take on the state of the world economy. Our proprietary indicators for overall industrial activity, manufacturing and retail spending lead competing data releases by two weeks to one month.
- Macro Strategists: Our thematic Global and US Macro Strategist reports are a key part of our offering to institutional investors. In most cases, however, the issues covered are of direct interest to corporate strategy, so we share these as part of your subscription.
- Global Macro Drivers: 5-year quarterly forecasts for real GDP, manufacturing, unemployment, CPI and PPI inflation, and currencies for the world’s 30 largest economies. We update these forecasts four times per year, and include baseline and alternative scenarios.
- US Macro Detail: 5-year quarterly forecasts for broad macro concepts and sector-specific drivers. Among other concepts, we provide monthly updates on growth, consumption, employment, short and long-term interest rates, the dollar, manufacturing activity by grouping, and retail spending.
- Energy Costs: 5-year quarterly forecasts for energy price benchmarks. We issue monthly updates to capture large fluctuations and frequent releases in commodity market data. We forecast Brent and WTI crude oil benchmarks, US and European natural gas, and refined petroleum products.
Become a client
Whether you're looking for an individual report or require extensive market research and quantitative analysis, we offer you the flexibility to become a client under your terms.
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