Numera’s Chief Strategist Joaquin Kritz Lara sits down with Chris Cook to analyze the economic impact of the US presidential election.
We warn that markets may not be properly pricing inflation risks, given the proposed policy decisions of Harris or Trump, which are significant. In our recent US Strategist report we measure the impact of their respective policy mix on inflation, and what it means for the Fed easing cycle. The result is not what we expected.
As is usually the case during a ‘late cycle’, markets have become highly sensitive to US economic data releases. A weak jobs report in early August temporarily shook investor confidence by reigniting recession worries. Yet signs of resilient spending and Powell’s dovish speech at Jackson Hole helped tone down concerns of an imminent slowdown, again fueling risky assets.
As the Fed starts its easing cycle, should investors continue favoring riskier assets, or are markets underestimating risks to the economy? Join us for an online briefing on September 24th at 11AM EST, where our Managing Director and Chief Economist Joaquin Kritz Lara will discuss our latest views on the US economy, the Fed, and implications for multi-asset and absolute returns strategies.
The European corrugated box market experienced a tentative recovery in H2 2023, rising from the recent lows of H2 2022. What are the prospects for continued growth in what remains a challenging economic environment and how will containerboard exports fare in a context of excess capacity?
Join Tomas Marinozzi, Economist, Guadalupe Carracedo, Market Analyst, and Paul Leclair, Vice-President at Numera Analytics as they discuss these questions in our online briefing. As always, they will provide Numera’s outlook for the European economy, prospects for consumer spending and manufacturing, and explain how a strong job market and shipping disruptions will affect ECB policy.
Equity markets roared back to life in 2023, benefiting from low financial stress, a weaker USD, and bullish investor sentiment in response to both AI and ‘soft landing’ optimism. History shows that a late cycle environment is flush with volatility. Knowing this, we seek to answer a very important question: How should investors position their portfolios to maximize risk-adjusted returns in 2024?
Join us for an online briefing on January 31st at 11AM EST, where our Managing Director and Chief Economist Joaquin Kritz Lara will discuss the key macro themes that will guide global markets next year, and discuss implications for multi-asset and absolute returns strategies.
Our Industrial sector diffusion index has been flashing major decoupling with the broad economy for some time now. Although, the most likely outcome for the US is still positive growth, risks have markedly increased over the last quarter. Recession risk has jumped 24 points to 42% for 2020, the highest level since 2008.
Join Joaquin Kritz Lara, Numera Analytics’ Head of Macro Research, on Wednesday, October 9th at 11:00 am EDT, as he discusses how macro risks influence asset returns, and how to adjust your portfolio moving into 2020. Click here to register to our webinar.
Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues facing corrugated packaging markets, with a focus on North America and Europe. Numera’s David Vallières along with VRP’s Chip Dillon and Bloomberg’s Joshua Zaret will discuss the supply/demand and pricing outlook in North America, new/projected capacity additions, secular demand sources, as well as China’s wastepaper import restrictions and what they mean for US containerboard producers.
To participate in this webinar taking place on Thursday, April 4th, 2019, 10:00 AM EDT, please register here.
Neglecting the assessment of risk by solely offering point forecasts is leaving you vulnerable to unforeseen surprises or worse, to extreme events like what transpired in 2008. Join Numera’s Head of Macro Research & Senior Economist, Joaquín Kritz Lara and Chris Cook, Vice President of Global Macro Solutions for a live webinar covering key issues shaping the global investment outlook in 2019.
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Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar on key issues regarding the global pulp market, which has seen an extraordinary run-up in prices the last two years due to accelerated global economic growth and significant unscheduled mill downtime, along with an environmental clampdown in China on polluting capacity and recovered paper imports.
To participate in this webinar taking place on Tuesday, November 13, 2018, 11:00 AM EST, please register here.
Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar regarding key issues in the volatile recovered-fiber market and its impact on market pulp and corrugated packaging.
To participate in this webinar taking place on June 20, 2018, 10:00 AM EDT, please register here.