Global manufacturing production rose 4.0% year-on-year in July, the strongest increase since April 2014. Although most of the gain was explained by stronger productive capacity (potential output was up 3.0%), cyclical factors were also at play. The output gap, a measure of market tightness in the manufacturing sector, hit a 28-month high in July. Strong demand conditions fuelled an uptick in producer price inflation, which had eased in May and June as a result of weak commodity prices.
World industrial activity continues to trend upwards, growing 3.6% year-over-year in July. Industrial production is up 3.2% after seven months, well above the 1.6% rate of growth recorded in 2016. Underlying the improvement in industrial production is stronger demand for manufactured goods, which is also contributing to higher merchandise trade flows. World manufacturing production was up 3.5% through July, with sturdy rates of growth recorded in most large economies. Perhaps the one major exception is the United States, where the pickup in activity primarily reflects a rebound in mining output (+5.6% year-to-date).
Bloomberg Intelligence, Numera Analytics and Vertical Research Partners analysts invite you to join us for a joint webinar on key issues regarding the volatile old corrugated container (OCC) market and its impact on the corrugated packaging industry.
To participate in this webinar taking place on September 21, 2017 at 11:00 AM EST, please register here.
Contrary to popular belief, changes in oil supply are of secondary importance in explaining recent oil price developments. In this study, Numera explores how the decline has mainly been the result of unanticipated shifts in market sentiment.
The recent strong performance of the European corrugated market can be attributed, to a large extent, to the unanticipated sharp drop in oil prices. This is the key finding of a recent econometric analysis by Numera Analytics. Moreover, the research indicates any quick rebound in oil prices could reverse these gains, unless the price increase is mainly driven by stronger global macroeconomic conditions.